Travel Forecasts

The Transport Performance and Analytics (TPA) produces travel forecasts using the Strategic Travel Model (STM). This model is a world class tool that projects travel patterns in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area under different land use, transport and pricing scenarios. It can be used to test alternative settlement, employment and transport policies, to identify likely future capacity constraints, or to determine potential usage levels of proposed new transport infrastructure or services.

The STM is built largely in the EMME transport modelling software. It is comprised of a series of models and processes that attempt to replicate, in a simplified manner, people’s travel choices and behaviour under a given scenario. The STM combines our understanding of travel behaviour with likely population and employment size and distribution, and likely road and public transport networks and services to estimate future travel under different strategic land use and transport scenarios.

The STM produces travel forecasts by origin (2,690) and destination (2,690) STM zones for:

• The Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area which includes the Sydney Statistical Division, Newcastle Statistical Subdivision and Illawarra Statistical Division.

• 5 yearly intervals from the latest Census year up to a 35-year horizon

• 9 travel modes: Car driver, Car passenger, Rail, Bus, Light rail, Ferry, Bike, Walk and Taxi

• 7 purposes: Work, Business, Primary/Secondary/Tertiary education, Shopping, Other

• 24 hour, average workday (Monday to Friday excluding public holidays)

• am/pm peak, interpeak and evening travel